Dear Readers:
3D TV mania is clearly upon us. Announcements right and left. More heat than a firestorm. And maybe, just maybe, a viable television business. There are a lot of unanswered questions, and one of the most nagging is "What about all the programming in the can? How do we monetize that?"
So, to get to a bit of an answer, I reached out to Hitesh Shah, CEO of The Z Effect, a company that turns existing 2D programming into stereoscopic 3D. Hitesh displayed his wares at this year's Cable Show in the itaas booth, and I interviewed Hitesh for their i-Way newsletter. The following comments are from that interview.
Hitesh tells us that the process of converting 2D to 3D is arduous and time-consuming. A single minute of video might cost as much as $75,000. But the end result is true to the original vision of the director (who is sometimes involved in the process), while maximizing the entertainment value for viewers with 3D television sets and 3D service subscriptions.
Doctor's Comment: The process, however, may be analogous to what Ted Turner commissioned when he purchased the primarily black-and-white MGM film library in 1986. Over the screams of film "purists," he began colorizing some of the classic movies to play on the Turner networks. Which they did, for a while. But one historical fact is self-evident: there are few of those colorized films playing today. The audience apparently preferred their classic movies (now restored and polished) in classic black and white.
Hitesh believes the automatic up-converting proposed by some of the CE manufacturers will eventually turn off viewers and sour the market. Think of the difference between Ray Harryhausen's special effects in "Jason and the Argonauts" (1963) and James Cameron's astonishing work on "Avatar." "Argonauts" was certainly a classic in some circles, but what if somebody presented that to you and said, "This is why you spent $3,000 on a new television set"?
The stereoscopic 3D conversion process is more art than engineering. Hitesh says that the "stereographer" is a sought-after talent, to rival the cinematographers of old. He needs to plot the depth of a scene, and the specific images and characters in every frame. And, of course, he needs to make sure the viewer isn't jarred
out of his seat between scenes.
And this is interesting for the beancounters out there: spending 80% of the required budget to "do it right" (in Hitesh's words) doesn't yield 80% of the impact. But overspending the budget actually starts diminishing the experience. There is a tipping point in 3D conversion. It's either right, or it's not. So the stereographer is an artist and an engineer, to be sure. But he's also a production manager, because there is no return on doing more than what's "right."
After my interview with Hitesh, the Nintendo 3DS game system won "Best of Show" at the E3 convention in LA. And that active screen (which does NOT require glasses) simply requires that the viewer stay within the visual "sweet spot" directly in front of the screen (people looking from the side will not see the 3D effect). And the 3DS has a slider so the viewer can move from 2D to 3D, and anywhere in between (admittedly pretty cool).
Now taking the Nintendo lead, it's probably safe to assume that engineers the world over are frantically working to create a television-sized version of that screen. Rumor has it that such a screen would take light from internal stereo projectors, left eye and right eye. And, as I understand it, a large screen could accommodate two stereo projectors that would adjust for viewers sitting on a couch. But why stop there? If my wife and I can both watch "Avatar" in 3D without glasses, then why not separate video feeds? The football game for me, and the movie for her (of course, we'd need earphones for the separate audio feeds). Or the kids could play "Halo 3" and blast the crap out of each other without giving up their positions.
The mind reels...
But back to reality. There is a real business out there. Here are some data points:
- YES Network has announced 3D Yankees games (ESPN is running World Cup matches in 3D).
- ADB already has over 100,000 3D set-top boxes in the field.
- Sony has run over two million consumer demos of their 3D sets at their Sony Style stores and special events.
- And, according to an industry exec who is an admitted 3D cynic, Lexus played a 3D commercial for their $375,000 LFA Supercar at a showing of "The Last Airbender," and the commercial was substantially
- more entertaining (and had better-produced 3D effects) than the film (sidebar: car enthusiasts are reverent in their description of the Lexus LFA as "the new Supra"). The spot is also playing on YouTube. You'll want to turn your speakers up and remove any glassware.
And here are a few comments from the distributors in the middle of the 3D firestorm:
- AT&T U-verse: "Right now, we expect 3D to be popular with our customers who are early adopters and are excited about this latest TV technology. Today we offer ESPN 3D, but we're looking at opportunities to grow our 3D line-up in the future. Our goal is for this package to offer a wide range of 3D content, just like our U-verse HD package does today."
- DirecTV: "DirecTV customers have access to a suite of dedicated channels offering 3D content: n3D linear (channel 103), DirecTV Cinema 3D (channel 104), n3D On Demand (channel 105), ESPN 3D (channel 106)...And DirecTV's 3D software update allows DirecTV receivers to detect 3D-compatible TV sets. Once detected, compatible TV's will automatically enter the correct 3D mode for a seamless tune-and-watch experience. Only DirecTV offers this seamless experience."
- Unnamed top-five MSO: "I think 3D TV is here to stay, but for the next few years will be predominately event- and movie-oriented--not mainstream, day-to-day viewing."
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The iTV Doctor is *Rick Howe*, who provides interactive television consulting services to programmers and advertisers. He is the recipient of a CTAM Tami Award for retention marketing and this year was nominated to Cable Pioneers. He is also the co-author of a patent for the use of multiscreen mosaics in EPG's. Endorsed by top cable and satellite distributors, "Dr" Howe still makes house calls, and the first visit is always free. His services include product development, distribution strategy and the development of low-cost interactive applications for rapid deployment across all platforms. Have a question for the iTV Doctor? Email him at itvdoctor@itvt.com
